Risk factor analysis and creation of an externally-validated prediction model for perioperative stroke following non-cardiac surgery: A multi-center retrospective and modeling study
机构:[1]Department of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China[2]Nation Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China[3]Department of Anesthesiology, Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Nantong, China[4]Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Henan Provincial People’s Hospital and People’s Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China[5]Department of Anesthesiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China[6]Department of Anesthesiology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China医技科室麻醉科首都医科大学附属北京同仁医院首都医科大学附属同仁医院[7]Department of Anesthesiology, The Sixth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
Background Perioperative stroke is a serious and potentially fatal complication following non-cardiac surgery. Thus, it is important to identify the risk factors and develop an effective prognostic model to predict the incidence of perioperative stroke following non-cardiac surgery. Methods and findings We identified potential risk factors and built a model to predict the incidence of perioperative stroke using logistic regression derived from hospital registry data of adult patients that underwent non-cardiac surgery from 2008 to 2019 at The First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital. Our model was then validated using the records of two additional hospitals to demonstrate its clinical applicability. In our hospital cohorts, 223,415 patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery were included in this study with 525 (0.23%) patients experiencing a perioperative stroke. Thirty-three indicators including several intraoperative variables had been identified as potential risk factors. After multi-variate analysis and stepwise elimination (P < 0.05), 13 variables including age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, hypertension, previous stroke, valvular heart disease, preoperative steroid hormones, preoperative beta-blockers, preoperative mean arterial pressure, preoperative fibrinogen to albumin ratio, preoperative fasting plasma glucose, emergency surgery, surgery type and surgery length were screened as independent risk factors and incorporated to construct the final prediction model. Areas under the curve were 0.893 (95% confidence interval (CI) [0.879, 0.908]; P < 0.001) and 0.878 (95% CI [0.848, 0.909]; P < 0.001) in the development and internal validation cohorts. In the external validation cohorts derived from two other independent hospitals, the areas under the curve were 0.897 and 0.895. In addition, our model outperformed currently available prediction tools in discriminative power and positive net benefits. To increase the accessibility of our predictive model to doctors and patients evaluating perioperative stroke, we published an online prognostic software platform, 301 Perioperative Stroke Risk Calculator (301PSRC). The main limitations of this study included that we excluded surgical patients with an operation duration of less than one hour and that the construction and external validation of our model were from three independent retrospective databases without validation from prospective databases and non-Chinese databases. Conclusions In this work, we identified 13 independent risk factors for perioperative stroke and constructed an effective prediction model with well-supported external validation in Chinese patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. The model may provide potential intervention targets and help to screen high-risk patients for perioperative stroke prevention.
基金:
National Key Research and Development Program of China [2018YFC2001901]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [81801193, 82171464, 82371469]; Capital Health Research and Development of Special [2022-4-5025]
第一作者机构:[1]Department of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China[2]Nation Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
共同第一作者:
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Department of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China[2]Nation Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Ma Yulong,Liu Siyuan,Zhang Faqiang,et al.Risk factor analysis and creation of an externally-validated prediction model for perioperative stroke following non-cardiac surgery: A multi-center retrospective and modeling study[J].PLOS MEDICINE.2025,22(3):doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1004539.
APA:
Ma, Yulong,Liu, Siyuan,Zhang, Faqiang,Cong, Xuhui,Zhao, Bingcheng...&Mi, Weidong.(2025).Risk factor analysis and creation of an externally-validated prediction model for perioperative stroke following non-cardiac surgery: A multi-center retrospective and modeling study.PLOS MEDICINE,22,(3)
MLA:
Ma, Yulong,et al."Risk factor analysis and creation of an externally-validated prediction model for perioperative stroke following non-cardiac surgery: A multi-center retrospective and modeling study".PLOS MEDICINE 22..3(2025)