机构：[1]Institute of Image Communication and Networking, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Tongren Hospital Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai, China[2]Institute of Image Communication and Networking, Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai, China[3]Tongren Hospital Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai, China
The prediction(1) of hospital operation indicators is of great significance and can provide an important basis for hospital operation and management, so as to assist managers to make decisions such as resource allocation and task planning. In order to solve this problem, a novel Holt-Winters model based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed, aiming at the accurate prediction of hospital operating indicators. In the process of model construction, according to the characteristics of time series data of hospital operation indicators, a time decay mean square error function is constructed as an optimization function of particle swarm optimization algorithm, which enables particle swarm optimization algorithm to better fit recent historical data and grasp the characteristics of recent time series, so as to improve the prediction accuracy. An example is given to analyze the hospital operation index data of a third-class hospital from 2014 to 2017. By initializing the parameters of the model and optimizing the parameters, the improved PSO-Holt-Winters model of TDMSE-1 is established, which can accurately predict the outpatient, inpatient, emergency, discharged and surgical cases.
基金：
This work was supported by Shanghai Tong Ren Hospital
Hospital-Level Research Fund. Fund project’s name: Research
and Application Demonstration of Health Information Service
Platform Based on Mobile Internet Technology, Project No.:
TR201415.
语种：
外文
被引次数：
WOS：
第一作者：
第一作者机构：[1]Institute of Image Communication and Networking, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Tongren Hospital Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai, China
通讯作者：
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Zheng Tao,Zhang Ya,Fan Chenhao.Research on Hospital Operation Index Prediction Method Based on PSO-Holt-Winters Model[J].PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTER SCIENCE AND APPLICATION ENGINEERING (CSAE2018).2018,doi:10.1145/3207677.3278092.
APA：
Zheng, Tao,Zhang, Ya&Fan, Chenhao.(2018).Research on Hospital Operation Index Prediction Method Based on PSO-Holt-Winters Model.PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTER SCIENCE AND APPLICATION ENGINEERING (CSAE2018),,
MLA：
Zheng, Tao,et al."Research on Hospital Operation Index Prediction Method Based on PSO-Holt-Winters Model".PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTER SCIENCE AND APPLICATION ENGINEERING (CSAE2018) .(2018)
