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Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Mainland China: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Theory

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机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, 10 Xitoutiao, Beijing 100069, Peoples R China [2]Beijing Municipal Key Lab Clin Epidemiol, Beijing 100069, Peoples R China [3]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tongren Hosp, Beijing Tongren Eye Ctr, Beijing Ophthalmol & Visual Sci Key Lab,Beijing I, Beijing 100730, Peoples R China [4]Beijing Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Dept Stat & Informat, 16 Hepingli Middle St, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China [5]Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
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关键词: tuberculosis Bayesian theory spatial-temporal interaction ecological factors

摘要:
Objective: To explore the spatial-temporal interaction effect within a Bayesian framework and to probe the ecological influential factors for tuberculosis. Methods: Six different statistical models containing parameters of time, space, spatial-temporal interaction and their combination were constructed based on a Bayesian framework. The optimum model was selected according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) value. Coefficients of climate variables were then estimated using the best fitting model. Results: The model containing spatial-temporal interaction parameter was the best fitting one, with the smallest DIC value (-4,508,660). Ecological analysis results showed the relative risks (RRs) of average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, and air pressure were 1.00324 (95% CI, 1.00150-1.00550), 1.01010 (95% CI, 1.01007-1.01013), 0.83518 (95% CI, 0.93732-0.96138), 0.97496 (95% CI, 0.97181-1.01386), and 1.01007 (95% CI, 1.01003-1.01011), respectively. Conclusions: The spatial-temporal interaction was statistically meaningful and the prevalence of tuberculosis was influenced by the time and space interaction effect. Average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and air pressure influenced tuberculosis. Average humidity had no influence on tuberculosis.

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出版当年[2015]版:
大类 | 3 区 环境科学与生态学
小类 | 3 区 环境科学
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Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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第一作者机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, 10 Xitoutiao, Beijing 100069, Peoples R China [2]Beijing Municipal Key Lab Clin Epidemiol, Beijing 100069, Peoples R China [3]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tongren Hosp, Beijing Tongren Eye Ctr, Beijing Ophthalmol & Visual Sci Key Lab,Beijing I, Beijing 100730, Peoples R China
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通讯机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, 10 Xitoutiao, Beijing 100069, Peoples R China [2]Beijing Municipal Key Lab Clin Epidemiol, Beijing 100069, Peoples R China
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