Objective: To explore the spatial-temporal interaction effect within a Bayesian framework and to probe the ecological influential factors for tuberculosis. Methods: Six different statistical models containing parameters of time, space, spatial-temporal interaction and their combination were constructed based on a Bayesian framework. The optimum model was selected according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) value. Coefficients of climate variables were then estimated using the best fitting model. Results: The model containing spatial-temporal interaction parameter was the best fitting one, with the smallest DIC value (-4,508,660). Ecological analysis results showed the relative risks (RRs) of average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, and air pressure were 1.00324 (95% CI, 1.00150-1.00550), 1.01010 (95% CI, 1.01007-1.01013), 0.83518 (95% CI, 0.93732-0.96138), 0.97496 (95% CI, 0.97181-1.01386), and 1.01007 (95% CI, 1.01003-1.01011), respectively. Conclusions: The spatial-temporal interaction was statistically meaningful and the prevalence of tuberculosis was influenced by the time and space interaction effect. Average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and air pressure influenced tuberculosis. Average humidity had no influence on tuberculosis.
基金:
National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [81373099]; National ST Major Project [2014ZX10004005-001]
第一作者机构:[1]Capital Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, 10 Xitoutiao, Beijing 100069, Peoples R China[2]Beijing Municipal Key Lab Clin Epidemiol, Beijing 100069, Peoples R China[3]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tongren Hosp, Beijing Tongren Eye Ctr, Beijing Ophthalmol & Visual Sci Key Lab,Beijing I, Beijing 100730, Peoples R China
共同第一作者:
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Capital Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, 10 Xitoutiao, Beijing 100069, Peoples R China[2]Beijing Municipal Key Lab Clin Epidemiol, Beijing 100069, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Cao Kai,Yang Kun,Wang Chao,et al.Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Mainland China: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Theory[J].INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH.2016,13(5):doi:10.3390/ijerph13050469.
APA:
Cao, Kai,Yang, Kun,Wang, Chao,Guo, Jin,Tao, Lixin...&Guo, Xiuhua.(2016).Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Mainland China: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Theory.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,13,(5)
MLA:
Cao, Kai,et al."Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Mainland China: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Theory".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 13..5(2016)