The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is a recognized surrogate marker for insulin resistance. This study explores the relationship between the baseline TyG index and the subsequent risk of stroke in middle-aged and older adults, while also examining the variable importance of various predictors potentially influencing stroke incidence.We included 6863 participants from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) who had no history of stroke at the start of the study. To identify important predictors, we employed the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) Cox regression model, followed by a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to analyze the association between the TyG index and future stroke incidence. Subgroup analyses by age and gender were conducted. The significance of different predictors was assessed using explainable survival machine learning models that accounted for temporal changes.Over a 9-year follow-up, 787 participants (11.5 %) experienced a first stroke. The baseline TyG index had an inverted U-shaped relationship with stroke risk. After adjustment for confounders, participants in the second, third, and highest quartiles of the baseline TyG index showed a higher stroke risk compared to those in the lowest quartile (P < 0.01), with adjusted hazard ratios (HR) [95 % confidence intervals (CI)] of 1.45 (1.16-1.82), 1.64 (1.31-2.04), and 1.36 (1.08-1.72), respectively. These associations were consistent across all subgroups except for individuals younger than 60 years. Notably, age emerged as the most significant predictor of stroke risk in the explainable machine learning analysis, with the TyG index also identified as a relatively important factor.This research employs explainable machine learning to delineate factors that contribute to stroke risk, highlighting how the TyG index's impact on stroke risk varies by age and gender. As an established surrogate marker for insulin resistance, the TyG index monitoring may play a crucial role in stroke prevention and management strategies.Copyright © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.