The growing deaths from non-communicable diseases attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages among young and middle-aged adults: Analysis and projection based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Introduction: Despite rising global health concerns about sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), their long-term impact on non-communicable disease (NCD) death across demographic groups and socioeconomic contexts remains poorly understood. Methods: We analyzed SSB-attributable NCD death trends using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 data from 204 countries (1990-2021). Time trends in death were expressed as average annual percent change (AAPC), stratified by age and socio-demographic index (SDI). Future trends through 2051 were projected using Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling. Results: SSB-attributable deaths increased from 27,286 (95 % UI: 11,099-42,134) in 1990 to 74,657 (95 % UI: 33,724-115,575) in 2021. The age-standardized death rate rose from 0.784 to 0.889 per 100,000 (AAPC: 0.460 %, 95 % CI: 0.326-0.594). Young and middle-aged adults exhibited a rapid increase in deaths, with an AAPC of 1.250 % (95 % CI: 1.070-1.420) observed in the 25-29 age group, particularly due to chronic kidney disease (AAPC: 2.779 %, 95 % CI: 2.626-2.931). Low-middle SDI regions experienced the most dramatic increase (AAPC: 2.569 %, 95 % CI: 2.453-2.684). Conclusion: Our findings reveal an alarming rise in SSB-attributable NCD deaths, particularly affecting young adults and resource-limited regions. This growing health equity challenge requires urgent policy interventions and prevention strategies to protect vulnerable populations.
基金：
Beijing High-Level Public Health Technical Personnel Training Project Grant [03-44]
第一作者机构：[1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tongren Hosp, Dept Endocrinol, 1 Dong Jiao Min Xiang, Beijing 100730, Peoples R China
共同第一作者：
通讯作者：
通讯机构：[1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tongren Hosp, Dept Endocrinol, 1 Dong Jiao Min Xiang, Beijing 100730, Peoples R China[*1]Department of Endocrinology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, 1 Dong Jiao Min Xiang, Beijing 100730, China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Liu Chang,Wang Hao,Hua Lin,et al.The growing deaths from non-communicable diseases attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages among young and middle-aged adults: Analysis and projection based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2021[J].DIABETES & METABOLIC SYNDROME-CLINICAL RESEARCH & REVIEWS.2025,19(8):doi:10.1016/j.dsx.2025.103296.
APA：
Liu, Chang,Wang, Hao,Hua, Lin&Xin, Zhong.(2025).The growing deaths from non-communicable diseases attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages among young and middle-aged adults: Analysis and projection based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.DIABETES & METABOLIC SYNDROME-CLINICAL RESEARCH & REVIEWS,19,(8)
MLA：
Liu, Chang,et al."The growing deaths from non-communicable diseases attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages among young and middle-aged adults: Analysis and projection based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2021".DIABETES & METABOLIC SYNDROME-CLINICAL RESEARCH & REVIEWS 19..8(2025)
