机构：[1]School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA[2]Nanjing Tongren Hospital, College of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China[3]Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China[4]Division of Public Health, School of Health Professions, Shenandoah University, Winchester, Virginia, USA[5]Robert Stempel College of Public Health and Social Work, Florida International University, Miami, Florida, USA[6]The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Traditional Chinese Medical University, Fuzhou, China
Background. Public health interventions have been implemented to contain the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in New York City. However, the assessment of those interventions-for example, social distancing and cloth face coverings-based on real-world data from published studies is lacking. Methods. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) compartmental model was used to evaluate the effect of social distancing and cloth face coverings on the daily culminative laboratory confirmed cases in New York City (NYC) and COVID-19 transmissibility. The latter was measured by R-t reproduction numbers in 3 phases that were based on 2 interventions implemented during this timeline. Results. Transmissibility decreased from phase 1 to phase 3. The initial R-0 was 4.60 in phase 1 without any intervention. After social distancing, the R-t value was reduced by 68%, while after the mask recommendation, it was further reduced by similar to 60%. Conclusions. Interventions resulted in significant reduction of confirmed case numbers relative to predicted values based on the SEIR model without intervention. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of social distancing and cloth face coverings in slowing down the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in NYC.
第一作者机构：[1]School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
通讯作者：
通讯机构：[5]Robert Stempel College of Public Health and Social Work, Florida International University, Miami, Florida, USA[6]The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Traditional Chinese Medical University, Fuzhou, China[*1][Robert Stempel College of Public Health and Social Work, Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th ST, Miami, FL 33174, USA
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Li Jian,Wang Yuming,Wu Jing,et al.Do Stay at Home Orders and Cloth Face Coverings Control COVID-19 in New York City? Results From a SIER Model Based on Real-world Data[J].OPEN FORUM INFECTIOUS DISEASES.2021,8(2):doi:10.1093/ofid/ofaa442.
APA：
Li, Jian,Wang, Yuming,Wu, Jing,Ai, Jing-Wen,Zhang, Hao-Cheng...&Sun, Wen-Jie.(2021).Do Stay at Home Orders and Cloth Face Coverings Control COVID-19 in New York City? Results From a SIER Model Based on Real-world Data.OPEN FORUM INFECTIOUS DISEASES,8,(2)
MLA：
Li, Jian,et al."Do Stay at Home Orders and Cloth Face Coverings Control COVID-19 in New York City? Results From a SIER Model Based on Real-world Data".OPEN FORUM INFECTIOUS DISEASES 8..2(2021)
