Purpose To determine the 5-year incidence of primary glaucoma and its associated risk factors in rural northern China. Methods Population-based cohort study. A total of 5184 participants aged 30 years and older, without glaucoma at baseline, were subjected to comprehensive standardized interviews and ophthalmic and systemic examinations at baseline and after a 5-year interval in the Handan Eye Study. Incident glaucoma was diagnosed by a consensus panel of five senior glaucoma specialists. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the baseline risk factors that could predict the incidence of glaucoma. Results During the 5-year follow-up, incident primary glaucoma developed in 82 subjects (1.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2%-1.9%). The age- and gender-standardized incidence of glaucoma among subjects >= 40 years old was 2.1% (0.4% annually), calculated according to the 2010 Chinese census. A higher age (odds ratio [OR], 1.06; 95% CI, 1.04-1.09; p < 0.001), higher intraocular pressure (IOP) (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.20; p = 0.017), and vertical cup disc ratio (VCDR) >= 0.60 (OR, 5.30; 95% CI, 3.22-8.73; p < 0.001) were found to be associated with an increased risk of incident glaucoma. For each year, older age and each mmHg higher IOP, the risks of primary glaucoma increased by 1.2% and 2.0% per year, respectively. Conclusion We reported the 5-year incidence of primary glaucoma in a rural Chinese population and found that older age, higher IOP, and VCDR >= 0.60 at baseline could help in identifying those at highest risk of disease development.