Background To report the predictive factors of myopic regression in patients who had undergone small incision lenticular extraction (SMILE) and femtosecond laser-assisted laser in situ keratomileuses (FS-LASIK) after 3-12 months of follow-up. Methods This retrospective case series study recruited patients with a subjective sphere of - 1.00 to - 6.00 D myopia. SMILE was performed in 1629 eyes of 1629 patients with a subjective refraction spherical equivalent (SEQ) of - 4.57 +/- 1.20 D and 1414 eyes of 1414 patients with a subjective SEQ of - 4.53 +/- 1.26 D in FS-LASIK. Refractive outcomes were recorded at 1 day, 1 week, and 1, 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively. Predictors affecting myopic regression and other covariates were estimated with a Cox proportional hazard (Cox PH) model for the two surgical methods. Results At 12 months, no significant difference was evident in the efficacy (P = 0.934), predictability (P = 0.733), or stability (P = 0.66) between FS-LASIK and SMILE. The survival rates were 83.7% in the FS-LASIK group and 88.1% in the SMILE group. Multivariate analysis by the Cox PH model revealed a similar probability of postoperative myopic regression with SMILE or FS-LASIK (P = 0.630). Predictors of myopic regression included preoperative higher-order aberration root mean square with 3 mm pupil diameter (pre-HOA-RMS3) (P = 0.004), anterior chamber depth (ACD) (P = 0.015), pre-subjective sphere (P = 0.016), corneal diameter (P = 0.016), optical zone (OZ) (P = 0.02), and predicted depth of ablation (DA) (P = 0.003). Conclusion SMILE and FS-LASIK had a similar risk of myopic regression for low to moderate myopia. Pre-HOA-RMS3, ACD, pre-subjective sphere, corneal diameter, OZ, and predicted DA were predictors of myopic regression.