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Predicting survival for patients with mesothelioma: development of the PLACE prognostic model

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机构: [1]Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Beijing Institute of Respiratory Medicine and Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, 8 Gongtinan Rd, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China. [2]Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Beijing Hospital, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, National Center of Gerontology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, 100005, China. [3]Department of Radiology, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, 8 Gongtinan Rd, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China. [4]Department of Respiratory and Critical Medicine, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100005, China. [5]Department of Pathology, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital , Capital Medical University, 8 Gongtinan Rd, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China.
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关键词: Malignant pleural mesothelioma Prognosis Prediction model Calcium Lymphocyte

摘要:
The overall survival of patients with mesothelioma is poor and heterogeneous. At present, the prediction model for Chinese patients needs to be improved. We sought to investigate predictors of survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma and develop prognostic prediction models.This Two-center retrospective cohort study recruited patients with pathologically diagnosed mesothelioma at Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital and Beijing Tong-Ren Hospital. We developed a new prognostic prediction model based on COX multivariable analysis using data from patients who were recruited from June 1, 2010 to July 1, 2021 in Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital (n = 95, development cohort) and validated this model using data from patients recruited from July 18, 2014 to May 9, 2022 in Beijing Tong-Ren Hospital (n = 23, validation cohort). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to estimate model accuracy.The parameters in this new model included PLT > 289.5(10^9/L) (1 point), Lymphocyte > 1.785(10^9/L) (-1point), Age > 73 years old (1 point), Calcium > 2.145(mmol/L) (-1point), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) > 2 (2 points). When the sum of scores < 0, it is recognized as a low-risk group; when the score is 0 ~ 3, it is recognized as a high-risk group. The survival rate of patients in the high-risk group was significantly lower than that in the low-risk group (hazard ratio [HR], 3.878; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.226-6.755; P < 0.001). The validation group had similar results (HR,3.574; 95%CI,1.064-12.001; P = 0.039). Furthermore, the areas under the curve 6 months after diagnosis in the two cohorts were 0.900 (95% CI: 0.839-0.962) and 0.761 (95% CI: 0.568-0.954) for development and validation cohorts, respectively.We developed a simple, clinically relevant prognostic prediction model for PLACE by evaluating five variables routinely tested at the time of diagnosis. The predictive model can differentiate patients of Chinese ethnicity into different risk groups and further guide prognosis.© 2023. The Author(s).

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出版当年[2022]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学
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大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学
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Q2 ONCOLOGY
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Q2 ONCOLOGY

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Beijing Institute of Respiratory Medicine and Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, 8 Gongtinan Rd, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China. [2]Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Beijing Hospital, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, National Center of Gerontology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, 100005, China.
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