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Multi-dimensional epidemiology and informatics data on COVID-19 wave at the end of zero COVID policy in China

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机构: [1]Joint Shantou Int Eye Ctr Shantou Univ & Chinese U, Shantou, Peoples R China [2]Shantou Univ Med Coll, Shantou, Peoples R China [3]Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Sch Optometry, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China [4]Shantou Univ, Network & Informat Ctr, Shantou, Peoples R China [5]Queensland Univ Technol, Brisbane, Qld, Australia [6]Shantou Univ Med Coll, Affiliated Hosp 1, Shantou, Peoples R China [7]Shantou Healthcare Secur Adm Ctr, Shantou, Peoples R China [8]Hybribio Med Lab Grp Ltd, Chaozhou, Peoples R China [9]Human Papillomavirus Mol Diagnost Engn Technol Res, Chaozhou, Peoples R China [10]Yulin First Hosp, Yulin, Peoples R China [11]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Inst Ophthalmol, Beijing Tongren Hosp, Beijing Ophthalmol & Visual Sci Key Lab, Beijing, Peoples R China [12]Jinping Dist Peoples Hosp Shantou, Shantou, Peoples R China [13]Zhengzhou Second Hosp, Zhengzhou, Henan, Peoples R China [14]Shaoguan Univ, Med Coll, Shaoguan, Peoples R China [15]Natl Ctr Infect Dis, Singapore, Singapore [16]Tan Tock Seng Hosp, Singapore, Singapore [17]Nanyang Technol Univ, Lee Kong Chian Sch Med, Singapore, Singapore [18]Natl Univ Singapore, Yong Loo Lin Sch Med, Singapore, Singapore [19]Shantou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Shantou, Peoples R China [20]Tsinghua Univ, Tsinghua Med, Beijing, Peoples R China [21]Singapore Natl Eye Ctr, Singapore Eye Res Inst, Singapore, Singapore
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关键词: COVID-19 zero-COVID policy Baidu search index Granger causality test Bayesian structural time series

摘要:
Background: China exited strict Zero-COVID policy with a surge in Omicron variant infections in December 2022. Given China's pandemic policy and population immunity, employing Baidu Index (BDI) to analyze the evolving disease landscape and estimate the nationwide pneumonia hospitalizations in the post Zero COVID period, validated by hospital data, holds informative potential for future outbreaks. Methods: Retrospective observational analyses were conducted at the conclusion of the Zero-COVID policy, integrating internet search data alongside offline records. Methodologies employed were multidimensional, encompassing lagged Spearman correlation analysis, growth rate assessments, independent sample T-tests, Granger causality examinations, and Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) models for comprehensive data scrutiny. Results: Various diseases exhibited a notable upsurge in the BDI after the policy change, consistent with the broader trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. Robust connections emerged between COVID-19 and diverse health conditions, predominantly impacting the respiratory, circulatory, ophthalmological, and neurological domains. Notably, 34 diseases displayed a relatively high correlation (r > 0.5) with COVID-19. Among these, 12 exhibited a growth rate exceeding 50% post-policy transition, with myocarditis escalating by 1,708% and pneumonia by 1,332%. In these 34 diseases, causal relationships have been confirmed for 23 of them, while 28 garnered validation from hospital-based evidence. Notably, 19 diseases obtained concurrent validation from both Granger causality and hospital-based data. Finally, the BSTS models approximated approximately 4,332,655 inpatients diagnosed with pneumonia nationwide during the 2 months subsequent to the policy relaxation. Conclusion: This investigation elucidated substantial associations between COVID-19 and respiratory, circulatory, ophthalmological, and neurological disorders. The outcomes from comprehensive multi-dimensional cross-over studies notably augmented the robustness of our comprehension of COVID-19's disease spectrum, advocating for the prospective utility of internet-derived data. Our research highlights the potential of Internet behavior in predicting pandemic-related syndromes, emphasizing its importance for public health strategies, resource allocation, and preparedness for future outbreaks.

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出版当年[2023]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
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出版当年[2022]版:
Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
最新[2023]版:
Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2022版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2021版] 出版后一年[2023版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Joint Shantou Int Eye Ctr Shantou Univ & Chinese U, Shantou, Peoples R China [2]Shantou Univ Med Coll, Shantou, Peoples R China
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通讯机构: [1]Joint Shantou Int Eye Ctr Shantou Univ & Chinese U, Shantou, Peoples R China [2]Shantou Univ Med Coll, Shantou, Peoples R China [20]Tsinghua Univ, Tsinghua Med, Beijing, Peoples R China [21]Singapore Natl Eye Ctr, Singapore Eye Res Inst, Singapore, Singapore
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