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Research on the predictive performance of using ROC curve to evaluate axial length for myopia in children and adolescents

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收录情况： ◇ SCIE

作者：
Mingming Cui[1,2] * ; Zhongxin Zhu[3] * ; Yuting Gao[3] * ; Xinnan Zong[4] ; Shaoli Li[5,6] ; Junting Liu[5,6] ; Fangfang Chen[7] ; Zhou Yang[8] ; Tao Yin[9] ; Yanyu Lyu[10] ; Hao Zhang[8] ;
机构： [1]Capital Institute of Pediatrics, 2 YaBao Rd, Beijing, 100020, China. [2]Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Child Development and Nutriomics, Beijing, China. [3]Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan, China. [4]Department of Growth and Development, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China. [5]Child Health Big Data Research Center, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China. [6]Child Healthcare Center, Capital Center for Children's Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China. [7]Department of Epidemiology, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China. [8]Department of Ophthalmology, Capital Center for Children's Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China. [9]Department of Science and Technology, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China. [10]Experiment Center, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China.
出处：
DOI： 10.1186/s12886-025-04017-8

关键词： Children Myopia Axial length(AL) ROC curve Logistic regression

摘要：
Assessing myopia risk can help clinicians intervene as early as possible. There is still a lack of reference values for predicting myopia based on the axial length (AL) of children. The study aims to explore the relationship between AL and myopia, and to predict the risk thresholds of AL in children of different age and sex groups.Visual acuity examination, refractive screening and ocular axis examination of 2388 children aged 7-18 (4776 eyes) from 8 schools in a certain area of Beijing were used as the data source, we evaluated the predictive ability of AL for myopia in children using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, and constructed Logistic Regression to analyze the reference value of AL threshold for children of different age and sex groups.The myopia rate among children and adolescents was 51.47%. The AL and SE were significantly correlated by Spearman correlation coefficient(P < 0.01). Predicting myopia in children based on their AL has a good reference value(AUC = 0.73). Children with AL ≥ 23.92 mm have a significantly higher myopia rate than those with AL < 23.92 mm (χ²=661.14, P < 0.01). The difference in AL among children of different age groups is statistically significant, and the AL shows an increasing trend with age. Among them, the AL threshold for children aged 7-12 is 23.67 mm, while that for children aged 13-15 is 23.92 mm, and children aged 16-18 is 24.42 mm. Children with an AL ≥ the threshold have a 4.41-fold higher risk of myopia than those with an AL < the threshold (OR = 4.41, 95% CI = 3.88-5.01). There is a statistically significant difference in AL between children of different sex groups. The male group has a higher AL(24.27 mm) than the females (23.71 mm), and children with AL ≥ threshold have a 5.58-fold higher risk of myopia than those with AL < threshold (OR = 5.58, 95% CI = 4.93-6.33).The correlation between SE and AL was strong in school children. Age-specific and sex-specific AL threshold for myopia might provide reference data as a useful indicator, aid in identifying and monitoring individuals at risk of myopia and have utility in population-based screening for myopia in children and adolescents.© 2025. The Author(s).

基金：
This project was supported by Public service development and reform pilot project of Beijing Medical Research Institute (BMR2021-3) and Capital Health Research and Development of Special (Ying Jie 2022-1-1081).
语种：
外文
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PubmedID：
中科院(CAS)分区：
出版当年[2025]版：
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 眼科学
最新[2025]版：
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 眼科学
JCR分区：
出版当年[2023]版：
Q3 OPHTHALMOLOGY
最新[2024]版：
Q3 OPHTHALMOLOGY

影响因子： 最新[2024版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2023版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2022版] 出版后一年[2024版]

第一作者：
第一作者机构： [1]Capital Institute of Pediatrics, 2 YaBao Rd, Beijing, 100020, China. [2]Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Child Development and Nutriomics, Beijing, China.
共同第一作者：
通讯作者：
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Mingming Cui,Zhongxin Zhu,Yuting Gao,et al.Research on the predictive performance of using ROC curve to evaluate axial length for myopia in children and adolescents[J].BMC Ophthalmology.2025,25(1):195.doi:10.1186/s12886-025-04017-8.
APA：
Mingming Cui,Zhongxin Zhu,Yuting Gao,Xinnan Zong,Shaoli Li...&Hao Zhang.(2025).Research on the predictive performance of using ROC curve to evaluate axial length for myopia in children and adolescents.BMC Ophthalmology,25,(1)
MLA：
Mingming Cui,et al."Research on the predictive performance of using ROC curve to evaluate axial length for myopia in children and adolescents".BMC Ophthalmology 25..1(2025):195

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