机构:[1]Peoples Hosp Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Dept Breast Surg, 318 Lucheng South Rd, Chuxiong 675000, Yunnan, Peoples R China[2]Peoples Hosp Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Dept Gen Surg 2, 318 Lucheng South Rd, Chuxiong 675000, Yunnan, Peoples R China[3]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tongren Hosp, Dept Oncol & Intervent Med, Mentougou Campus,10 Hetanqiao East St, Beijing 102300, Peoples R China临床科室肿瘤中心首都医科大学附属北京同仁医院首都医科大学附属同仁医院[4]Kunming Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 3, Yunnan Canc Hosp, Dept Breast Surg, 519 Kunzhou Rd, Kunming City 650100, Yunnan, Peoples R China
Objective: To investigate the clinicopathological factors influencing lung and bone metastasis in breast cancer, and to further construct a nomogram model for predicting the risk of lung and bone metastasis in breast cancer patients at various time points, followed by a prognostic analysis. Methods: The retrospective analysis included 200 patients with breast cancer, among whom 51 had lung metastases and 57 had bone metastases. The remaining 92 patients without metastases served as the control group. Baseline characteristics were analyzed using the chi-square test; COX univariate and multivariate analyses were applied to explore the influencing factors. A nomogram was constructed to predict the risk of individuals developing lung or bone metastasis at 1, 3, and 5 years. The predictive model was further validated by ROC curves and calibration curves, and decision curves were plotted to assess the clinical application value of the model. Results: Analysis revealed that age, BMI, tumor size, lymph node status, ER, PR, HER-2, and Ki67 significantly influenced lung metastasis (P < 0.05), while age, BMI, tumor size, lymph node status, ER, PR, and Ki67 significantly impacted bone metastasis (P < 0.05). The nomogram indicated that HER-2 negativity elevated the risk of breast cancer lung metastases. ROC curves were plotted for 1, 3, and 5 years, with AUC values and 95 % confidence intervals of 0.803 (67.42-93.15), 0.831 (75.93-90.29), and 0.854 (78.43-92.34) in the lung metastasis group, and 0.754 (55.15-95.66), 0.753 (64.91-85.71), and 0.777 (68.64-86.67) in the bone metastasis group, respectively. These results suggest that the model has a superior predictive efficacy and a high degree of predictive reliability. Additionally, the calibration curve demonstrated that the model is well-fitted, and the decision curve indicated that the model possesses clinical utility in practice. Conclusion: Age, BMI, tumor size, lymph node status, ER, PR, and Ki67 significantly influence lung and bone metastasis in breast cancer. The nomogram developed in this study can evaluate the risk of lung or bone metastasis for individuals at 1, 3, and 5 years, predict prognosis, guide clinical individualized treatment, and bring more benefits, further improving the quality of life for patients. It demonstrates good predictive ability and clinical value. Key message: The nomogram model constructed in this study can predict prognosis, guide clinical individualized treatment, and bring more benefits, further improving the quality of life for patients. It possesses good predictive ability and holds certain clinical predictive value.
基金:
National Natural Science Foundation of China [82360614, 81960517]; Yunnan Province "14th Five-Year Plan" Provincial Key Clinical Specialty General Surgery Construction Project; Science and Technology Project of Yunnan Provincial Science and Technology Department [202201AY070001-169]; Yunnan Health Training Project of High Level Talents [H-2019075]; Beijing Science and Technology Innovation Medical Development Foundation [KC2021-JK-0044-6]; Wu Jieping Medical Foundation [320.6750.2022-19-58]; [81960542]
第一作者机构:[1]Peoples Hosp Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Dept Breast Surg, 318 Lucheng South Rd, Chuxiong 675000, Yunnan, Peoples R China
共同第一作者:
通讯作者:
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Feng Mengya,Kang Yihua,Li Sijia,et al.Prognostic factors analysis and nomogram construction of breast cancer patients lung metastases and bone metastases[J].SURGERY OPEN SCIENCE.2025,26:28-38.doi:10.1016/j.sopen.2025.04.006.
APA:
Feng, Mengya,Kang, Yihua,Li, Sijia,Yang, Dechun,Ren, Shengnan...&Lei, Hai.(2025).Prognostic factors analysis and nomogram construction of breast cancer patients lung metastases and bone metastases.SURGERY OPEN SCIENCE,26,
MLA:
Feng, Mengya,et al."Prognostic factors analysis and nomogram construction of breast cancer patients lung metastases and bone metastases".SURGERY OPEN SCIENCE 26.(2025):28-38