机构：[1]Hongqiao International Institute of Medicine, Shanghai Tongren Hospital and School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China[2]Clinical Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China[3]Cancer Epidemiology Program, University of Hawaii Cancer Center, Honolulu, Hawaii[4]Department of Cancer Control and Prevention, Division of Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China[5]Shanghai Clinical Research Promotion and Development Center, Shanghai Hospital Development Center, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
Objective: To examine the secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality and to estimate the proportion of thyroid cancer cases potentially attributable to overdiagnosis. Methods: Data on thyroid cancer cases from 1973 to 2015 were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer Registry. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was evaluated using the joinpoint regression analysis. The age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed using an age-period-cohort model. The overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer cases was estimated based on the difference between observed and expected incidences using the rates of Nordic countries as reference. Results: From 1973 to 2015, the number of thyroid cancer cases was 23117, and 75% of the patients were women. The age-standardized rates were seven-to eightfold higher from 2013 to 2015 than from 1973 to 1977. Compared with relatively stable mortality, thyroid cancer incidence was dramatically increased from 2002 to 2015 in both sexes, with significant trends (men: AAPC = 21.84%, 95% CI: 18.77%-24.98%, P < .001; women: AAPC = 18.55%, 95% CI: 16.49%-20.64%, P < .001). The proportion of overdiagnosis has gradually increased over time, rising from 68% between 2003 and 2007 to more than 90% between 2013 and 2015. This increasing trend appeared to be similar between men and women. Conclusion: An increasing gap between thyroid cancer incidence and mortality was observed in Shanghai, and overdiagnosis has contributed substantially to the rise of incidence, which calls for an urgent update on the practice of thyroid examination. (c) 2021 AACE. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
基金：
Shanghai Municipal Health Com-mission [2018ZHYL0202, 20184Y0331]; National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [81903417]
第一作者机构：[1]Hongqiao International Institute of Medicine, Shanghai Tongren Hospital and School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China[2]Clinical Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
共同第一作者：
通讯作者：
通讯机构：[1]Hongqiao International Institute of Medicine, Shanghai Tongren Hospital and School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China[4]Department of Cancer Control and Prevention, Division of Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China[5]Shanghai Clinical Research Promotion and Development Center, Shanghai Hospital Development Center, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China[*1]Hongqiao International Institute of Medicine, Shanghai Tongren Hospital and Faculty of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, No. 227 South Chongqing Road, Shanghai, 200025, People’s Republic of China.[*2]Department of Cancer Control and Prevention, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control, West Zhongshan Road, Shanghai, 200336, People’s Republic of China.
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Xie Li,Wang Suna,Qian Ying,et al.Increasing Gap Between Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Urban Shanghai, China: An Analysis Spanning 43 Years[J].ENDOCRINE PRACTICE.2021,27(11):1100-1107.doi:10.1016/j.eprac.2021.06.002.
APA：
Xie, Li,Wang, Suna,Qian, Ying,Jia, Sinong,Wang, Jie...&Qian, Biyun.(2021).Increasing Gap Between Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Urban Shanghai, China: An Analysis Spanning 43 Years.ENDOCRINE PRACTICE,27,(11)
MLA：
Xie, Li,et al."Increasing Gap Between Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Urban Shanghai, China: An Analysis Spanning 43 Years".ENDOCRINE PRACTICE 27..11(2021):1100-1107
