机构：[1]Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, WuhanUniversity, Wuhan, China[2]Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China[3]School of Mathematics and Physics, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan, China[4]Medical Science Research Center, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China[5]Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University,Wuhan, China[6]Eye Center, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China[7]Infections Department, Wuhan Seventh Hospital, Wuhan, China[8]The Ninth Hospital of Wuhan City, Wuhan, China[9]Department of general surgery, Huanggang Central Hospital, Huanggang, China[10]Department of general surgery, Ezhou Central Hospital, Ezhou, China[11]Department of Cardiology, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, HuazhongUniversity of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China[12]Department of Stomatology, Xiantao First People’s Hospital, Xiantao, China[13]Department of Urology, Wuhan Third Hospital & Tongren Hospital of Wuhan University,Wuhan, China[14]The Central Hospital of Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, Enshi, China[15]Department of Neurology, The First People’s Hospital of Jingmen affiliated to Hubei MinzuUniversity, Jingmen, China[16]Department of Orthopedics, The First People’s Hospital of Jingmen affiliated to Hubei MinzuUniversity, Jingmen, China[17]Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Changjiang University,Jingzhou, China[18]Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Jingzhou Central Hospital, Jingzhou, China[19]Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Xianning Central Hospital, HubeiProvince, Xianning, China[20]Xiangyang Central Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Hubei University of Arts and Science,Xiangyang, China[21]Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Suizhou central Hospital Affiliated toHubei Medical College, Suizhou, China[22]Department of Cardiology, The First College of Clinical Medical Science, China Three GorgesUniversity & Yichang Central People's Hospital and Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, ChinaThree Gorges University, Yichang, China[23]Department of Neurology, Wuhan First Hospital / Wuhan Hospital of Traditional Chinese andWestern Medicine, Wuhan, China[24]Humanitas Clinical and Research Hospital IRCCS, Rozzano-Milan, Italy & Department ofBiomedical Sciences, Humanitas University, Pieve Emanuele-Milan, Italy[25]Division of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院[26]Departments of Neonatology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China[27]Department of Gastroenterology, Wuhan Third Hospital & Tongren Hospital of WuhanUniversity, Wuhan, China[28]Department of Cardiology, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, HuazhongUniversity of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China[29]Guangdong Metabolic Diseases Research Center of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine& Key Laboratory of Glucolipid Metabolic Disorder, Ministry of Education of China & Instituteof Chinese Medicine, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University.Guangdong TCM Key Laboratoryfor Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou, 510006, China[30]Departments of Anesthesiology, Physiology and Medicine, Cardiovascular ResearchLaboratories, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, USA
To develop a sensitive and clinically applicable risk assessment tool identifying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with a high risk of mortality at hospital admission. This model would assist frontline clinicians in optimizing medical treatment with limited resources.
6,415 patients from seven hospitals in Wuhan city were assigned to the training and testing cohorts. A total of 6,351 patients from another three hospitals in Wuhan, 2,169 patients from outside of Wuhan, and 553 patients from Milan, Italy were assigned to three independent validation cohorts. A total of 64 candidate clinical variables at hospital admission were analyzed by random forest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analyses.
Eight factors, namely, Oxygen saturation, blood Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, admission before the date the national Maximum number of daily new cases was reached, Age, Procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and absolute Neutrophil counts, were identified as having significant associations with mortality in COVID-19 patients. A composite score based on these eight risk factors, termed the OURMAPCN-score, predicted the risk of mortality among the COVID-19 patients, with a C-statistic of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.93). The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality between patients with OURMAPCN-score >11 compared with those with scores ≤11 was 18.18 (95% CI 13.93-23.71; P < 0.0001). The predictive performance, specificity, and sensitivity of the score were validated in three independent cohorts.
The OURMAPCN score is a risk assessment tool to determine the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients based on a limited number of baseline parameters. This tool can assist physicians in optimizing the clinical management of COVID-19 patients with limited hospital resources.
基金：
Special Foundation for
Emergency Research on Prevention and Control of COVID-19 of Guangdong Province
(2020B1111330003), National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFF0101504,
2019YFC2004700, 2020YFC0845500), the National Science Foundation of China (81630011,
81970364, 81970070, 81970011, 81870171, and 81570412), the Hubei Science and Technology
Support Project (2019BFC582, 2018BEC473, and 2017BEC001), Medical flight plan of Wuhan
University, and COVID-19 funds of Lombardia Region, CARIPLO and Fondazione Umberto
Veronesi to GC.
语种：
外文
被引次数：
WOS：
PubmedID：
中科院(CAS)分区：
出版当年[2020]版：
大类|3 区医学
小类|3 区医学：内科4 区医学：研究与实验
最新[2023]版：
大类|4 区医学
小类|3 区医学：内科4 区医学：研究与实验
JCR分区：
出版当年[2019]版：
Q2MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNALQ3MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
最新[2023]版：
Q1MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNALQ3MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
第一作者机构：[1]Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, WuhanUniversity, Wuhan, China[2]Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
共同第一作者：
通讯作者：
通讯机构：[1]Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, School of Basic Medical Science, WuhanUniversity, Wuhan, China[2]Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China[4]Medical Science Research Center, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China[29]Guangdong Metabolic Diseases Research Center of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine& Key Laboratory of Glucolipid Metabolic Disorder, Ministry of Education of China & Instituteof Chinese Medicine, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University.Guangdong TCM Key Laboratoryfor Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou, 510006, China[30]Departments of Anesthesiology, Physiology and Medicine, Cardiovascular ResearchLaboratories, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, USA[*1]Institute of Chinese Medicine, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, 280 Wai Huan Dong Road, Guangzhou 510006, China[*2]Departments of Anesthesiology, Physiology and Medicine Cardiovascular Research Laboratories, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, USA, CHS 37-200J, Los Angeles, CA 90095[*3]Medical Science Research Center, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Institute of Model Animal of Wuhan University, 169 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China[*4]Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University 99 Zhangzhidong Road, Wuhan 430060, China.Institute of Model Animal of Wuhan University, 169 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Ze Chen,Jing Chen,Jianghua Zhou,et al.A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients.[J].CURRENT MEDICAL RESEARCH AND OPINION.2021,37(6):917-927.doi:10.1080/03007995.2021.1904862.
APA：
Ze Chen,Jing Chen,Jianghua Zhou,Fang Lei,Feng Zhou...&Hongliang Li.(2021).A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients..CURRENT MEDICAL RESEARCH AND OPINION,37,(6)
MLA：
Ze Chen,et al."A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients.".CURRENT MEDICAL RESEARCH AND OPINION 37..6(2021):917-927
