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Implementation of five machine learning methods to predict the 52-week blood glucose level in patients with type 2 diabetes

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机构: [1]Chinese Peoples Liberat Army Gen Hosp, Med Ctr 1, Dept Endocrinol, Beijing, Peoples R China [2]Stanford Univ, Dept Emergency Med, Sch Med, Stanford Healthcare TriValley, Pleasanton, CA USA [3]Chinese Peoples Liberat Army Gen Hosp, Med Ctr 2, Dept Endocrinol, Beijing, Peoples R China [4]Chinese Peoples Liberat Army Gen Hosp, Natl Clin Res Ctr Geriatr Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China [5]Chinese Peoples Liberat Army Gen Hosp, Med Ctr 1, Dept Outpatient, Clin Cadre, Beijing, Peoples R China [6]Fujian Prov Hosp, Dept Orthoped, Fuzhou, Peoples R China [7]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tongren Hosp, Beijing Tongren Eye Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
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关键词: type 2 diabetes machine learning algorithms blood glucose prediction model

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ObjectiveFor the patients who are suffering from type 2 diabetes, blood glucose level could be affected by multiple factors. An accurate estimation of the trajectory of blood glucose is crucial in clinical decision making. Frequent glucose measurement serves as a good source of data to train machine learning models for prediction purposes. This study aimed at using machine learning methods to predict blood glucose for type 2 diabetic patients. We investigated various parameters influencing blood glucose, as well as determined the most effective machine learning algorithm in predicting blood glucose. Patients and methods273 patients were recruited in this research. Several parameters such as age, diet, family history, BMI, alcohol intake, smoking status et al were analyzed. Patients who had glycosylated hemoglobin less than 6.5% after 52 weeks were considered as having achieved glycemic control and the rest as not achieving it. Five machine learning methods (KNN algorithm, logistic regression algorithm, random forest algorithm, support vector machine, and XGBoost algorithm) were compared to evaluate their performances in prediction accuracy. R 3.6.3 and Python 3.12 were used in data analysis. ResultsThe statistical variables for which p< 0.05 was obtained were BMI, pulse, Na, Cl, AKP. Compared with the other four algorithms, XGBoost algorithm has the highest accuracy (Accuracy=99.54% in training set and 78.18% in testing set) and AUC values (1.0 in training set and 0.68 in testing set), thus it is recommended to be used for prediction in clinical practice. ConclusionWhen it comes to future blood glucose level prediction using machine learning methods, XGBoost algorithm scores the highest in effectiveness. This algorithm could be applied to assist clinical decision making, as well as guide the lifestyle of diabetic patients, in pursuit of minimizing risks of hyperglycemic or hypoglycemic events.

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出版当年[2022]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 内分泌学与代谢
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 内分泌学与代谢
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出版当年[2021]版:
Q1 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM
最新[2023]版:
Q2 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2021版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2020版] 出版后一年[2022版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Chinese Peoples Liberat Army Gen Hosp, Med Ctr 1, Dept Endocrinol, Beijing, Peoples R China
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通讯机构: [3]Chinese Peoples Liberat Army Gen Hosp, Med Ctr 2, Dept Endocrinol, Beijing, Peoples R China [4]Chinese Peoples Liberat Army Gen Hosp, Natl Clin Res Ctr Geriatr Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China
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